Category Archives: 卷里卷外

比起未知的年号,安倍时代已经来临

2017年3月5日,自民党第84次全国代表大会,通过了修改党章议程,将现有的总裁任期“连续2期6年”延长到“3期9年”。由于现任总裁安倍晋三在2006-07年曾经短暂执政1年,日本战后政党史中出现了10年的“安倍时代”。比起未知的新天皇的年号,安倍时代,倒是来的很快很稳。需要注意的以下几点:

  1. 这是保守势力的胜利,为今后跨过国会两院3分之2的门槛,修改宪法打下基调。
  2. 这是安倍个人的胜利,名留LDP党史,更有机会实现自己的政治理念,开启面向未来的日本。(2015年9月的演讲后,这是更加明显的一步)
  3. 短期来说,内政上对日本有利。美国换届,TPP被喊停,东北亚、亚太局势都不明朗,现有的领导人继续执政,一定程度上有利于稳定局势,增强信心也再次给安倍经济学新一轮的时间。但是外交上还得看周边国家的反应。再者,如果出现意外(目前的森友学院的丑闻,箭头指着第一夫人,对于安倍首相有一定的威胁)临时换阵(岸田外相接班)的新领导人极有可能打出强硬牌,甚至会恶化局势。
  4. 外交上,安倍虽然已经为日美确定好了基调,但是日韩(目前双方大使都还没有恢复)日朝,特别是周围的双边外交关系都很冷。如果安倍时代能够在外交上更多的采用第二轨道,第三轨道,应该会有回升的空间。毕竟邻居都搬不走,还得解决分歧。
  5. 长期来说,对于LDP 而言利弊皆有。作为议会内阁制,延长党主席的任期,甚至于取消term limits在欧洲国家是非常普遍的做法,这将使得日本政党在决定领导人机制上“去派阀化”取得一定的进展,总裁权力进一步扩大,同时也是切实实现了自小泉纯一郎以来的“首相总统化”的想法。参考德国和英国,长期来看具有一定的积极效果,或许会是LDP开启新一轮改革的契机。***但是更大的问题在于,本次修改仅仅就一项达成了协议,而没有别的议案跟进,没有组织改革,党内职务提升等实质的变更。那带来的直接后果就是,领导人会出现断代,敢于对抗的力量(石破茂表示希望今后,不要继续不经过选举的总裁任命)会更加弱势,甚至也会出现小泉进次郎所担忧的,年轻人鲜有出头的机会了。

那么总体而言呢?term limits设定的目的就是要防止专权,防止President for a life,但是在内阁制政府,不需要担心太多。需要担心的是,安倍时代,反对的声音太小太弱,使得保守势力增强的步伐太快,这值得日本国民,也值得周边国家多多注意跟提防。

 

 

 

 

RIP Jun Kyogoku (1924-2016)

京极纯一(京極 純一)传统学者,文笔易懂,且善于突破,是日本第一批推广量化研究(采用统计学研究投票行为,政治意识)的学者。他也有论著翻译为英文,广为人知。 尤其是东大出版的3本,深入浅出的分析日本政治,且比较日本(和风)与欧美政治(洋式),受教良多。

 

RIP。缅怀。

ABE 2015 and beyond?unquestionable & stable regime ?

安倍2015?

“再来500天?”笑~ 对于权力的向往和欲望,无需多解释。

值得注意的是,安倍将终结近10年来“日本首相走马观花似的轮替”, 进而实现post-koizumi的,首次长期稳定政权。

过去的2天,对于安倍来说,显得比较有意义。首先是9日,历史上最大金额的预算案,总算在公明党和次世代的党(出走的保守势力)的支持下,得以顺利通过,继而进一步巩固内阁支持率并且稳妥的开展本年度。
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20150409/k10010042951000.html
民主党稀稀拉拉的反对声音,连个水漂都没有激气来。人们总在说55年体制,自民党的统治多么的稳定,又有多少人还记得那个时候的在野党联合起来,是能够给执政党不少压力的,哪里像如今?!

而今天日经,创15年来的新高。下午连手机app都在推送
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-NMK9R46K50YC01.html
日本桥(东证)和永田町(国会)都比较开心,而ABE君更是可以为安倍经济学背书了。

另一方面,9月份的LDP党内选举,从近期来看,几无悬念,甚至可以大胆的猜测,或许将出现无投票,现任获胜的局面。无论是党内的高层的时不时在各种媒体的公开和私人的表态,还是曾经最大的对手,石破茂,俨然在媒体前看不到身影。作为促进和振兴地方经济发展的内阁成员,居然要通过在blog上发表有关修宪以及安保的文章,才能重新在网络上多少点击量,何来挑战和威胁而言呢?

http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=pol&k=2015041000870
根据时事社的报道,目前党内三位重要职务担任者,都公开表示了支持ABE再选。(总务会长,干事长,政调会会长)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~是否到了写Abe leadership文章的时候了呢?

小泉之前能够实现长期执政,当时我们大致的分析就是总裁选程序和计票方式的变化(有不少文章分析),那么这次后小泉时代,首次出现的长期稳定政权,留待分析的问题就更多了。

“After Piketty”, 12 policy proposes to reduce inequality of outcomes

Economics for public policy

“The media storm surrounding the publication of Thomas Piketty’s remarkable Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2014) has ensured that inequality is now in the forefront of public debate. But what next?”

Sir Tony Atkinson

Thus begins an essay in The British Journal of Sociology by the dean of inequality studies, A. B. Atkinson of Oxford University. This is a must read for anyone interested in public policy addressed to the growing inequality in the rich countries.

Professor Atkinson’s focus is on the United Kingdom, but his far-reaching set of policy prescriptions address many aspects of public policy (not just tax and transfer policy), and have relevance well beyond the European context.

Tony Atkinson is an economist of the highest order who has been studying and contributing to the economics of inequality since the 1960s. In this paper he offers 12 proposals that, he says, “could bring about a genuine shift in the…

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A Decade of Replications: Lessons from the Quarterly Journal of Political Science

The Political Methodologist

Editor’s note: this piece is contributed by Nicholas Eubank, a PhD Candidate in Political Economy at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business.

The success of science depends critically on the ability of peers to interrogate published research in an effort not only to confirm its validity but also to extend its scope and probe its limitations. Yet as social science has become increasingly dependent on computational analyses, traditional means of ensuring the accessibility of research — like peer review of written academic publications — are no longer sufficient. To truly ensure the integrity of academic research moving forward, it is necessary that published papers be accompanied by the code used to generate results. This will allow other researchers to investigate not just whether a paper’s methods are theoretically sound, but also whether they have been properly implemented and are robust to alternative specifications.

Since its inception in 2005…

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How Social Movements Die: A Review

Mobilizing Ideas

Out this month is Christian Davenport’s book on movement demobilization titled How Social Movements Die, published by Cambridge University Press. In this theoretically-informative and conceptually-rich analysis of the birth and death of the Republic of New Africa (sometimes “Afrika”), a Black nationalist movement that emerged out of Detroit in the late 1960s, Davenport demonstrates how state-sponsored repression and internal movement dynamics interact and combine to bring about a movement’s demise. The book comes highly recommended, for reasons I outline below.

HSMD Book cover

The RNA was founded with four primary goals in mind: territorial autonomy in southern states, reparations for slavery, a separate governance structure, and the democratic participation of African Americans on matters of policy within these liberated territories. The movement relied on mainstream, nonviolent tactics, but also promoted militancy and produced an armed wing.  Regardless of any outside intervention, the RNA was likely destined for dissolution because of the mismatch…

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The Relationship Between Teaching and Research

but there is a pre-condition that you have enough time devoted to your research

How to Do Great Research

I remember applying for NSF’s Graduate Research Fellowship many years ago and being asked to answer a question describing my experiences “integrating research and education”.  At the time, I was baffled by the question, as I hadn’t yet done much teaching.  I thought: Aren’t teaching and research orthogonal?  I’m told by current students that the question no longer exists in the fellowship application, which I think is unfortunate.  That question has stayed with me throughout my career: I regularly re-ask myself questions about integrating research and education.

At least in the United States (and presumably elsewhere, too), university researchers are regularly asked to tie our research back to education: for example, faculty members are regularly asked to describe the “broader impact” of their research, which includes how the results of the research will be incorporated into the curriculum.  I’ve learned that this is no accident; to the contrary, I think…

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