和Guang Lei老师聊天，说起我的研究，他建议我可以读一读Victor Shih的文章
VICTOR SHIH, CHRISTOPHER ADOLPH and MINGXING LIU (2012).
Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central Committee Members in China.
American Political Science Review, 106, pp 166-187. doi:10.1017/S0003055411000566.
用的是Bayesian method. 结论颇有意思！
We find no evidence that strong growth performance was rewarded with higher party ranks at any of the post-reform party congresses.
Instead, factional ties with various top leaders, educational qualifications, and provincial revenue collection played substantial roles in elite ranking,
Suggesting that the promotion system served the immediate needs of the regime and leaders, rather than encompassing goals such as economic growth.
Portfolio Allocation as Leadership Strategy: Intraparty Bargaining in Japan
American Journal of Political Science
Volume 56, Issue 3, pages 553–567, July 2012 这篇文章倒是给我很多参考和启发。