Monthly Archives: August 2013

Sartori的警告…

Sartori的警告

Is there no way of bridging this gap? (Between case study and generalizing)

In theory, that is, methodologically speaking, we do have to choose between alternative strategies of inquiry.

In practice, that is, in our actual proceedings, the comparativist is required to draw on the information provided by single-country, configurative studies; and, conversely, the single-country specialist who ignores comparative findings harms his own endeavor.

source:

Comparing and Mis-comparing

Journal of Theoretical Politics 3(3): 243-257(1991)

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中国证监会严惩光大证券(加强金融监管?)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2013-08/30/c_132678298.htm

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324463604579044421203019730.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-30/everbright-securities-hit-with-fines-employee-bans-for-error

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/everbright-securities-hit-with-fines-employee-bans-for-error.html

The CSRC had initially barred Everbright from trading using its own money for three months after erroneous buy orders on Aug. 16 sparked the biggest swing in China’s benchmark equity index since 2009. The misstep, combined with glitches this month at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and in the Nasdaq Stock Market, has fueled concern that electronic trading systems are unreliable.

“The punishment sends a signal to the market that the CSRC will not tolerate irregularities,” Chen Xingyu, a Shanghai-based analyst at Phillip Securities Research, said by phone today. “This is a long process: The system risk won’t be removed just because of the Everbright incident or just by getting one brokerage to behave.”、

http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-MSC78K6TTDS001.html

http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXNASGM3003P_Q3A830C1FF2000/

【香港=土居倫之】中国証券監督管理委員会は30日、光大証券が誤発注を公表しないまま、誤発注の損失を相殺するために株価指数先物を空売りした取引をインサイダー取引と認定した。同社に約5億元(約80億円)の罰金を科す。同社の自己売買取引の責任者など4人にも罰金と証券市場での勤務を終身禁じる処分を科す。光大証券は16日の上海株式市場で誤って234億元の買い注文を出し、そのうち72億7000万元の取引が成立した。誤発注による損失を回避するため株価指数先物約48億元を空売りし、その時点で誤発注の事実を外部に公表していなかった。

Will Demographic Change Slow China’s Rise? 人口结构变化会让中国崛起减速吗?

*最近看的中国研究似乎多了点。。。 嘛,假期嘛。

Will Demographic Change Slow China’s Rise?

Karen Eggleston, Jean C. Oi, Scott Rozelle, Ang Sun, Andrew Walder and Xueguang Zhou

The Journal of Asian Studies / FirstView Article / June 2013, pp 1 – 14

DOI: 10.1017/S0021911813000557, Published online: 11 June 2013

Link to this article: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0021911813000557

摘要

China’s 2010 census revealed a population of 1.34 billion, 50 percent urban, 13.3 percent
above age sixty, and with 118.06 boys born for every 100 girls. In this article, we discuss
how gender imbalance, population aging, and their interaction with rapid urbanization
have shaped China’s reform era development and will strongly shape China’s future.
These intertwined demographic changes pose an unprecedented challenge to social and
economic governance, contributing to and magnifying the effects of a slower rate of economic
growth. We organize the analysis according to the proximate determinants of economic
growth: first, labor input and its productivity; second, capital investment and
savings; and finally, multi-factor productivity, including social stability and governance.
We argue that the economic, political, and social context that turns labor and capital
inputs into economic outputs is perhaps the most important and least understood
arena in which demographic change will shape China’s rise.

Banks in China Too big to hail (economist 31th Aug, 2013)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21584342-chinas-banking-behemoth

AT FIRST sight, China seems to have a superb banking system. Its state-controlled banks, among the biggest and most profitable in the world, have negligible levels of non-performing loans and are well capitalised. That appears to suggest that the country’s approach should be applauded.

Not so. For one thing, though China’s banking system is stable, its banks are not as healthy as they seem. The credit binge of recent years has left them with far higher levels of risky loans than they acknowledge. And a profit squeeze is coming. The banks are having to work harder to keep both their biggest depositors, who are tempted by alternative investment products, and their biggest borrowers, who are turning to the bond market instead. As a consequence, the country’s Big Four banks—Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank—will no longer make easy money by merely issuing soft loans to state-owned enterprises, or SOEs (see article).

Excess of caution

China’s new leaders have acknowledged that the old approach has led to excesses, notably overcapacity in state industries. They are talking of allowing more private (but not foreign) investment in the financial sector and are urging banks to lend more to private firms. That is not enough.

For a start, China should end financial repression. If deposit rates were gradually freed, banks would be forced to compete with each other for depositors and free to win back customers now lost to the shadow banking system. Most Chinese banks have no clue today about customer service, risk management or credit assessment. That would have to change. Miserable returns on bank deposits encourage punters to plough money into real estate and other riskier investments, so paying decent deposit rates might help prick the property bubble, too.

Second, China needs to go beyond banking. In many developed economies, non-bank firms and financial markets vie with banks to issue credit, but in the Middle Kingdom(哈哈,一贯的冷哟) banks still dominate. In recent years Chinese firms raised nine times as much money from banks as they did on the country’s stock exchanges. The corporate bond market has grown quickly of late (and big banks no longer gobble up most of the offerings). This growth should be encouraged.

Third, China must separate banking from crony state capitalism. The best way to do this is privatisation. 继续鼓励和提倡私有化Smaller banks like China Merchants and China Minsheng, in which private investors have significant stakes, lend much more energetically to small businesses and households than do the state-controlled goliaths. Privatising the Big Four would help(哇哦?!), though it would make it harder for the state to manage any future banking crisis. And as long as sheltered, oligopolistic SOEs exist, banks will lend disproportionately to them because they enjoy implicit state backing. So the big SOEs must themselves face greater market discipline.

Finally, China should welcome competition, from abroad and at home. Two Chinese internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, are starting to provide wealth management, investment funds and other financial services. Banks are lobbying against them. Regulators worry about the destabilising effect of start-ups with new business models, but for newcomers that do not pose a systemic risk they can afford lighter-touch regulation.

None of these changes should happen overnight. They can be implemented gradually. But a bit of disruptive innovation would be good for China’s stodgy banks, and its people.

第一,第二条靠谱,后面的,噢也,哦也,やり過ぎじゅないか

研究会「参院選後の日本」④ 伊藤元重 東京大学大学院教授 2013.8.20

Motoshige Itoh, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo
日本経済再生のために、安倍政権がとるべき経済政策について、政府の経済財政諮問会議­で民間議員をつとめている伊藤元重・東京大学大学院教授が話した。民間企業が活動しや­すいようにマクロ経済環境を整備して、成長戦略をつくっていくことが大事とした。
司会 日本記者クラブ企画委員 実哲也(日本経済新聞)
経済財政諮問会議のウェブサイト
http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai-shimon/i…
日本記者クラブのページ
http://www.jnpc.or.jp/activities/news…

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記者による会見リポート(日本記者クラブ会報2013年9月号に掲載)

ルビコン川を渡った日本経済

時代を切り開くのは楽観論者である。〈自分には力がある〉〈リスクはあるがやり通せる­〉。そう考えられないようではチャレンジできない。
「日本経済はルビコン川を渡った」と話し、揮ごうもした伊藤元重教授。デフレ脱却に向­けて超金融緩和に踏み出したのだから、もう振り返ったり、心配したりしても仕方がない­。前に進むしかない、との思いが伝わる会見だった。伊藤教授もまた楽観論者であると見­た。
安倍政権のもとで復活した経済財政諮問会議の民間議員になっただけに、アベノミクスを­サポートする立場。白川日銀の舵取りをやんわり否定し、超金融緩和へと舵を切った黒田­日銀の金融政策を「想像以上に効果があった」と評価した。超金融緩和からの出口戦略の­難しさを多くの識者やメディアが指摘するが、「出口戦略は難しい話ではない。批判は的­外れ」と言い切った。
そうは言われても心配になるのが人情である。デフレから抜け出してもいないのにインフ­レを心配するのもどうかとは思うが、賃金上昇が物価上昇に追いつかなくなり、超金融緩­和の副作用に苦しむことはないのだろうか。「過去をみると一般的には物価と賃金とは連­動する」と賃金上昇が少し遅れるとはいえ、追随すると楽観的な見方を披露した。
むしろ問題は長期にわたるデフレのもとで「何もしないことが得策」と思い込んでしまっ­た経営者たちが、アニマルスピリットを復活させ、積極的な投資行動に出てくるかどうか­であると伊藤教授は指摘した。電力改革やTPPなどビジネスチャンスが広がると見た民­間企業が動き出すかが「第3の矢」の成長戦略の肝である。
積極果敢な投資行動が見え始めれば、伊藤教授の楽観論も説得力が増す。ルビコンを渡っ­た限りはそうあってほしいと願うばかりである。

朝日新聞編集委員
安井 孝之

source: JNPC 日本记者俱乐部

http://www.youtube.com/user/jnpc?feature=watch

Saving Babies?: The Consequences of Newborn Genetic Screening

after Sartori

一直很想写。

而且一直在准备写。 忙完这一段,思考如何下笔。

THE POLITICAL SCIENCE OF GIOVANNI  SARTORI

gianfranco pasquino

European Political Science: 4, 2005

doi:10.1057/palgrave.eps.2210003

http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eps/journal/v4/n1/full/2210003a.html